July Nymex natural gas (NGN25) on Monday closed up sharply by +0.247 (+7.17%).

July nat-gas prices on Monday settled sharply higher as US weather forecasts shifted warmer for mid-June, which could boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage.  Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Monday that temperatures shifted hotter across large portions of the central and eastern US for June 12-16.

Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 104.5  bcf/day (+2.9% y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 67.4 bcf/day (+3.8% y/y), according to BNEF.  LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Monday were 13.5 bcf/day (-9.6% w/w), according to BNEF.

A decline in US electricity output is negative for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported last Thursday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended May 24 fell -4.4% y/y to 77,837 GWh (gigawatt hours), although US electricity output in the 52-week period ending May 24 rose +3.25% y/y to 4,249,859 GWh.

Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended May 23 rose +101 bcf, right on expectations, but above the 5-year average build for this time of year of +98 bcf.  As of May 23, nat-gas inventories were down -11.7% y/y and +3.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.  In Europe, gas storage was 47% full as of May 26, versus the 5-year seasonal average of 58% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending May 30 rose +1 to 99 rigs, modestly above the 4-year low of 94 rigs posted on September 6, 2024.  Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/2 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).