Nvidia (NVDA) is gearing up to unveil its first-quarter earnings report for fiscal 2026 on May 28 amidst renewed investor interest in the stock. After a somewhat subdued performance in 2025, NVDA stock has jumped by 20.7% in the past month, buoyed by positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations. The temporary halt on most tariffs between the two countries has alleviated fears of a global economic slowdown, triggering a broad market recovery that has also lifted Nvidia stock.

Looking ahead to the first quarter, Nvidia is expected to maintain solid revenue growth, particularly driven by strong performance in its data center segment. While NVDA will continue to benefit from solid demand, challenges stemming from new U.S. export restrictions affecting the shipments of its H20 chip to China may impact its top-line growth rate in the coming quarters.

Notably, Nvidia’s rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has also acknowledged the impact of export controls on its operations, foreseeing a $1.5 billion impact on its top line in 2025.

Despite these challenges, Nvidia’s prospects remain solid, led by ongoing investments in AI infrastructure.   Moreover, sovereign AI opportunities could help offset the negatives stemming from new export controls.  Let’s look closer at the Street’s projection for Nvidia’s Q1.

Nvidia: Q1 Expectations

Nvidia is poised to deliver another solid quarter as demand for its GPUs continues to surge, driven by ongoing investments in AI infrastructure and solutions. With momentum building across its key segments, such as data center, gaming, and automotive, the company’s first-quarter top-line results will likely show notable growth, year-over-year and sequentially.

For Q1, Nvidia’s management has guided revenue to reach $43 billion, reflecting a solid 65% jump from the same period last year and a 9% increase over the previous quarter. This growth will be supported by the rapid scaling of Blackwell, Nvidia’s latest AI platform. After generating $11 billion in revenue in the previous quarter alone, Blackwell is gaining traction as production ramps up and customer adoption accelerates. With ongoing strength from its Hopper 200 architecture, Nvidia’s data center business will likely deliver another stellar quarter.

The data center segment, the backbone of Nvidia’s business, is expected to remain a significant growth engine. In the last quarter of fiscal 2025, compute revenue in this segment jumped 18% quarter over quarter and more than doubled year over year. This momentum will likely continue as AI infrastructure spending shows no signs of slowing. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s networking products will benefit from higher demand for Spectrum-X and NVLink Switch.

Beyond the data center, Nvidia’s gaming division is also expected to post sequential gains, suggesting that consumer demand for its GPUs remains healthy. In addition, Nvidia’s automotive segment remains strong, supported by the ongoing expansion of autonomous driving technology in passenger vehicles and robotaxis.

While Nvidia’s gross margins may face some pressure due to the product mix, the company’s soaring revenue will likely drive strong profitability. Analysts expect NVDA's earnings per share to hit $0.80 in Q1, up 37.9% from the $0.58 posted in the same period last year. Nvidia also has a solid history of beating expectations, having exceeded consensus estimates in the previous four quarters. In its most recent earnings release, it posted a 7.6% earnings surprise.

Conclusion

Nvidia appears well-positioned to extend its growth trajectory in Q1. Robust demand across key segments, including data center, gaming, and automotive, and the rapid adoption of its next-generation AI platforms support a strong outlook. While near-term headwinds such as export restrictions could present some challenges, Nvidia’s leadership in the AI ecosystem and continued innovation place it in a favorable long-term position.

Analysts remain confident in Nvidia’s prospects, given its solid fundamentals and history of outperforming expectations. With a “Strong Buy” consensus from Wall Street, NVDA stock remains a compelling investment for long-term investors ahead of its May 28 report.