WTI Crude Oil Futures (July Future)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 62.03, down -0.11 [-0.18%]

Oil futures settled lower yesterday as a global risk-off tone and adverse commentary out of China weighed on them. In yesterday’s overnight session, Iran’s leader called President Trump’s comments on being close to a nuclear deal “nonsense,” which drove futures higher around 3 am.  

Europe sanctioned 200 oil & gas tankers allegedly a part of Russia’s “shadow fleet”. The West is tightening sanctions as Putin holds back on legitimate ceasefire negotiations.

Today, Crude Oil is up +0.85 [+1.37%] to 62.88

After the close yesterday, around 5 pm CST, CNN dropped a headline that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. The headline was quickly retweeted and spread, driving crude futures higher by 2.00 at the reopen. The actual article was far less alarming than the headline.

The Trump-Netanyahu relationship is becoming more and more strained as Israel appears to be dead-set on waging total war on Shia factions across the Middle East. When combined with the breakdown in Russia-Ukraine talks, geopolitical risk premia looks like it will stay elevated for now.

Data Releases:  

The API report after yesterday’s close is shown below [thousand bbls]:

Crude: +2,500
Gasoline: -3,240
Distillates: -1,400   
Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: -1,100
Gasoline: -2,000
Distillates: -1,400
Refinery Utilization: +0.70%
Technical Analysis:

The rapid move higher after hours failed at our major pivot level of 64.09-64.16***. The CNN article was less alarming than the headline led people to believe. If futures do manage to settle above 63.56***, momentum will shift to favor the bulls.

A neutral range-bound market would still seem probable if July futures settle below the 63.11*** level.  

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at 62.60 with support at 61.50 and resistance at 63.56***.    

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 63.11-63.56***, 65.41-65.92***

Pivot: Intraday – 62.00 | Longer Term: 64.09-64.16***

Support: 54.33-54.95****, 57.15-57.62**, 59.56-60.08**, 61.00-61.26**

Summary & Bias History

Bias Summary from May 5th – 6th:

The bearish catalyst that has kept us sidelined has now been realized. As we turn our analysis forward, the environment is chalked with bullish potential catalysts. Because of this, we shifted our bias to Neutral / Bullish the morning of May 5th on the Sunday night ~4% gap lower in futures.  

On paper, the forward-looking balance sheet looks oversupplied with accelerated OPEC hikes against a weaker demand outlook with the global economic slowdown we’re currently experiencing.

This will be the bear case, and it’s a valid case, but it uses somewhat lazy math. If you back out Iranian barrels, lower US production growth, and back out some Venezuelan barrels, the picture looks much different.

When you add some risk-premia for potential Russian sanctions and an escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict, you get to our bull case of the mid-60s level.

We can now add improving US-China dialogue to the potentially bullish catalyst list. The top end of our medium-term outlook is $65, and we like prudent profit taking around $62.50.

Added 5/12/2025: With an interim trade deal reached, the upside on Crude is extended. Markets will now try and price in a revived Chinese economy after the trade deal and we’d like to see where price action goes through today.

Want to stay informed about energy markets? 

Subscribe to our daily Energy Update for essential insights into Crude Oil and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market biases delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up now for free futures market research from Blue Line Futures!

SIGN UP FOR 2-WEEKS OF FREE RESEARCH

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.