Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee, operates as a rural lifestyle retailer. Valued at $28.1 billion by market cap, the company provides farm maintenance, animal, general maintenance, lawn and garden, light truck equipment, work clothing, and other products. 

Shares of the largest rural lifestyle retailer have underperformed the broader market over the past year. TSCO has declined 7.4% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 12.5%. In 2025, TSCO stock is down marginally, compared to the SPX’s 1.4% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, TSCO’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the VanEck Retail ETF (RTH). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 16.8% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 6.4% returns on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s marginal dip over the same time frame.

TSCO's underperformance is due to cautious consumer spending, pressure on higher-priced items, and uncertainty over tariffs. This reflects broader challenges in the retail sector, including economic volatility, and increased costs from tariffs and investments.

On Apr. 24, TSCO shares closed down more than 3% after reporting its Q1 results. Its EPS of $0.34 fell short of Wall Street expectations of $0.37. The company’s revenue was $3.5 billion, missing Wall Street forecasts of $3.6 billion. TSCO expects full-year EPS to be $2 to $2.18.

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect TSCO’s EPS to grow 2.5% to $2.09 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat or matched the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions.

Among the 31 analysts covering TSCO stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 15 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 13 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and one “Strong Sell.”

The configuration has been fairly stable over the past three months. 

On Apr. 29, Barclays PLC (BCS) analyst Seth Sigman maintained a “Hold” rating on TSCO with a price target of $52.

The mean price target of $55.99 represents a 5.8% premium to TSCO’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $65 suggests an upside potential of 22.9%.