Earnings, PMI and Other Can't Miss Items This Week

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The S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPYhad another good week last week closing higher by over a percent on the heels of expected rate cut talk and a congressional stopgap getting passed. Other than that, the news last week was mixed, while many of the reports came out better than expected, it means we are still in a hot economy. This could have a detrimental impact on everyone's hopes for some rate hikes. 

This week we are back into earnings reports, and these usually have some type of effect on the market, especially in the first few weeks and the larger companies report. News is sparse next week, but several of the reports have some serious potential to move the markets.

Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.

Earnings

We have a stacked week with regard to earnings this week. Monday United Airlines reports, Tuesday Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Procter and Gamble (PG), Netflix (NFLX), and Verizon (VZ) reports. Wednesday's big release is Tesla (TSLA), this release has some potential to really move the markets given how popular of a trading vehicle it is. Thursday Visa (V), Intel (INTC), and T-Mobile (TMUS) report, and finally on Friday American Express (AXP) is out before the market opens. 

All of these reports are important, but they could also give a deeper look into the economy under the hood. For consumer-driven companies, watching their forward guidance for the next few quarters could be very telling about how they expect the economy to go. With Visa and American Express, watching delinquency rates and other payback metrics could offer a glimpse into how the consumer is doing, and finally with the tech firms like Intel and Netflix watch for potential layoffs to deal with any potential issues they see with the economy. 

Flash PMI

Both the Services and Manufacturing PMI are out Wednesday and both offer insight into the strength or weakness of the underlying sectors. Manufacturing has been hovering under 50 for the past few months showing continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Services have been a little better hovering just over the 50 level showing very limited expansion. It's possible with how strong some of the economic news was last week that we could be looking for a miss on the numbers to see any positive reaction for the markets. The stronger the economy is, it's possible the Fed will hold rates stable as opposed to cutting.

Unemployment Claims

Sticking with the theme of economic strength, watching how Unemployment claims come out on Thursday morning could provide some additional insight into how the economy is doing. Potentially more important than the top-line number though is the revision of the previous weeks. Claims have been holding pretty steady in the lower 200k’s after revision so any deviation from that could be potentially market-moving.

Core PCE

PCE is the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services except for energy and food. This could be seen as a true measure of inflation and given how much prices have moved for most people, a negative number could be a best-case scenario. If this comes in too far above expectation, it could be seen as negative by the market and cause for some selling pressure to materialize. If it's a miss or negative it's possible we rally off the news.

Geopolitical Tensions 

Sadly there are still tensions rising overseas as other countries have started to enter into the fray. Watching how these issues resolve themselves could be telling for how shipping will be affected over the coming year. That will matter because any increases in transit times could have a direct impact on end-user pricing. 

Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.



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On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.