AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures ended the Monday session with losses of 2 to 3 cents. The USDA Export Inspections report showed exports for the week of October 12 well below a year ago at just 12.7 mbu, and lagging the previous week by 44.59%. Export shipments for the marketing YTD are now just half of the total for the same date in 2017 at 153.7 mbu. This afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report indicated that just 28% of the US corn crop was harvested as of October 15, a move of just 6% over last week. The 5-year average for this week sits at 47%. Condition ratings gained 1 point on the Brugler500 to 366.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.50 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.64 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.72 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.79 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures fell 4 to 9 1/4 cents on profit taking to start the week. December meal was $4.10/ton lower, with nearby bean oil down 10 points. The USDA announced a private export sale of 227,300 MT to unknown destinations for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated shipments of 65.05 mbu. That was a 18.78% jump over the previous week but 31% smaller than the same week last year. YTD inspections (since Sept 1) now lag last year by 21.84 mbu. Soybean export commitments are 11.4% lower than this time last year. The NOPA report this morning indicated September crush by its members at 136.419 mbu, slightly below expectations. That was still 4.75% larger than last September and the largest September crush since 2007. Soy oil stocks came in nearly 30 million pounds shy of expectations at 1.302 billion pounds. The USDA reported the soybean harvest at 49% completed, vs. the average of 60%.

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $9.91, down 9 1/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $10.01 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.10 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.27 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $324.50, down $4.10,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.59, down $0.10

Wheat

Wheat futures closed Monday with most contracts 1 to 5 1/2 cents lower. All wheat export inspections totaled just 11.86 mbu during the week of Oct 12. That is 8.19% lower than the previous week and 30.53% behind the same week a year ago. Shipments YTD for the 17/18 MY are 15.34 mbu smaller than the same time in 2016. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 60% of the US winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, lagging the average pace by 11%. It also reported 37% of the crop emerged. In Iraq’s recent tender for 50,000 MT of wheat, the US presented the lowest offer.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.36 1/2, down 3 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.33 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.09 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures settled Monday trade with most contracts 15 cents to $1.10 lower. Feeder futures were 5 to 65 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was 43 cents higher at $155.66 on October 13.Wholesale beef prices were higher in the Monday afternoon report. Choice was up 59 cents at $198.81, while select boxes were 52 cents higher at $190.57. FI cattle slaughter was lighter on Monday and estimated at 110,000 head, about 5,000 fewer than the previous week and 4,000 head lower the same week last year. Cash sales @ $111 were reported to end last week, with a few up to $112 in some regions.

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $111.725, down $1.100,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $116.825, down $0.300,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $120.925, down $0.150,

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.000, down $0.050

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.550, down $0.450

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.550, down $0.500

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were steady to $1.50 higher on Monday. Only December was in triple digit territory. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/12 was $0.39 higher than the previous day at $59.51. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 81 cents higher at $75.25 this afternoon. The belly primal was $2.21 lower, as the loin jumped $4.51. The national base hog was up 82 cents at 58.41. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 17,000 head fewer than last week at 446,000 head on Monday, but still 5,000 larger than the same week in 2016. The Chinese ag ministry is indicating that sow numbers in that country in September were 5% below September 2016, with all hogs down 6.1% year/year.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $63.700, up $1.500,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $68.300, up $0.850

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $72.025, up $0.075

Cotton

Cotton futures finished the Monday session with most contracts 55 to 109 points lower. The was a little pressure from a slightly higher US dollar, up 176. The USDA showed 82% of the cotton crop with bolls open. They show 31% harvested vs. the average of 26%. National ratings moved around, as gd/ex was 2% lower at 58% gd/ex. The Brugler500 was left UNCH at 355, as very poor ratings also improved to poor and fair. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 60.44 cents/lb, down 11 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for the 13th of October was 100 points lower at 77.70 cents/lb. The Seam reported online cash sales of 888 bales at an average price of 66.49 cents/lb.

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 67.530, down 109 points,

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 67.320, down 84 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 68.770, down 82 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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